CAPITOX

FUNDAMENTAL FUND

ABOUT FUNDAMENTAL FUND

CapitOx Fundamental Strategies Fund (FSF) is Oxford’s premier equity long-only student managed investment fund. Our fund comprises of over 30 Fund Analysts and Portfolio Managers - most of whom graduated from our Finance Academy and/or have prior finance experience. Our live FSF also gives students practical experience on how to manage a student portfolio with real money being traded.

Programme
Offerings.

HT25 Competition Winners: A Short on Netflix

We proposed a short recommendation of Netflix (NFLX). While the market perceived Netflix as having won the streaming wars, our contrarian view identified headwinds that the market was missing. With predictions of subscriber growth slowing, pricing power fading, and advertising efforts underwhelming, we argued that Netflix was overvalued by over 40%, trading at a 52x P/E multiple - on par with Nvidia - despite facing fierce competition and limited room for expansion.

Some things that ultimately gave us the edge in the competition included sentiment analysis using Python, running a full DCF valuation with scenario analysis (37 builds across geographies and pricing outcomes) and constructing a reverse DCF to show how implausible the market’s assumptions were. Our valuation incorporated macro headwinds, CPM erosion, and subscriber churn linked to price sensitivity, producing a base case target of $619.13, well below its market price of $1,027.31.

The competition was a valuable yet challenging opportunity to pitch against top teams from across the UK like CAMSIF and LSE, while also those with students flying in from the United States. We were proud to receive strong feedback from the judges, with one remarking that our time-mapped catalyst analysis and integration of expert interviews demonstrated a level of depth and rigour they would not even expect from a first-year analyst.

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